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Odra Petřkovice vs Uničov — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Odra Petřkovice
Odra Petřkovice
FT
3 – 0
Uničov
Uničov
9/21/20193. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 8Stadion Petřkovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Odra Petřkovice42%
×Draw24%
Uničov34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Petřkovice
1.58
Uničov
1.39

Odra Petřkovice creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 80 away

creates per match

Odra Petřkovice
1.65
Uničov
1.66

allows per match

Odra Petřkovice
1.12
Uničov
1.51

finishing

Odra Petřkovice+0.00on par
Uničov+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Petřkovice ↓

Uničov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Odra Petřkovice or draw
66%
Odra Petřkovice or Uničov
76%
Draw or Uničov
58%

Winning margin

Odra Petřkovice wins by 2+
21%
Uničov wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Odra Petřkovice 1+ goals
79%
Odra Petřkovice 2+ goals
47%
Odra Petřkovice 3+ goals
21%
Uničov 1+ goals
75%
Uničov 2+ goals
40%
Uničov 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Odra Petřkovice (draw refunded)
56%
Uničov (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Petřkovice at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Uničov away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.51 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Petřkovice attack 1.65 + Uničov defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.58

Uničov attack 1.66 + Odra Petřkovice defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Odra Petřkovice scores more
42%
level
24%
Uničov scores more
34%

Odra Petřkovice at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Odra Petřkovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Odra Petřkovice 3–0 Uničov

Odra Petřkovice beat Uničov 3-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Petřkovice in Ostrava.