Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Uničov vs Hranice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Uničov
Uničov
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hranice
Hranice
11/12/20233. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 15Uničov umělá tráva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Uničov63%
×Draw20%
Hranice18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uničov
2.23
Hranice
1.09

Uničov creates 105% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 51 away

creates per match

Uničov
2.24
Hranice
1.06

allows per match

Uničov
1.13
Hranice
2.22

finishing

Uničov+0.00on par
Hranice+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uničov ↓

Hranice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Uničov or draw
82%
Uničov or Hranice
80%
Draw or Hranice
37%

Winning margin

Uničov wins by 2+
40%
Hranice wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Uničov 1+ goals
89%
Uničov 2+ goals
65%
Uničov 3+ goals
38%
Hranice 1+ goals
66%
Hranice 2+ goals
30%
Hranice 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Uničov (draw refunded)
78%
Hranice (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uničov at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.13 · 83 matches

Hranice away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.22 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uničov attack 2.24 + Hranice defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.23

Hranice attack 1.06 + Uničov defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Uničov scores more
63%
level
20%
Hranice scores more
18%

Uničov at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Uničov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Uničov 2–1 Hranice

Uničov beat Hranice 2-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Uničov umělá tráva in Uničov.