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Hranice vs Uničov — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Hranice
Hranice
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Uničov
Uničov
6/14/20243. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 32Stadion SK Hranice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hranice34%
×Draw24%
Uničov43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hranice
1.44
Uničov
1.65

Uničov creates 15% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 80 away

creates per match

Hranice
1.37
Uničov
1.66

allows per match

Hranice
1.63
Uničov
1.51

finishing

Hranice+0.00on par
Uničov+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hranice ↓

Uničov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hranice or draw
57%
Hranice or Uničov
76%
Draw or Uničov
66%

Winning margin

Hranice wins by 2+
15%
Uničov wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Hranice 1+ goals
76%
Hranice 2+ goals
42%
Hranice 3+ goals
18%
Uničov 1+ goals
81%
Uničov 2+ goals
49%
Uničov 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Hranice (draw refunded)
44%
Uničov (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hranice at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 51 matches

Uničov away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.51 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hranice attack 1.37 + Uničov defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.44

Uničov attack 1.66 + Hranice defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hranice scores more
34%
level
24%
Uničov scores more
43%

Uničov at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Uničov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hranice vs Uničov

Hranice beat Uničov 4-2 in 3. liga - MSFL on June 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion SK Hranice in Hranice.