Uniclinic Atletico Clube 2–1 Cordino

Uniclinic Atletico Clube

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cordino

Pedro 85'

Lucas 67'

Debu 36'

6/18/2023

Serie D · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Olímpico Horácio Domingos de Sousa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Uniclinic Atletico Clube53%

×Draw26%

Cordino21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uniclinic Atletico ClubeExpected goals in this matchCordino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.86

Uniclinic Atletico Clube

1.52

Cordino

0.86

Uniclinic Atletico Clube creates 77% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 11 away

1.30

creates per match

0.73

1.00

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Uniclinic Atletico Clube

1.30

Cordino

0.73

allows per match

Uniclinic Atletico Clube

1.00

Cordino

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uniclinic Atletico Clube+0.00on par

Cordino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uniclinic Atletico Clube ↓

Cordino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Uniclinic Atletico Clube or draw

79%

Uniclinic Atletico Clube or Cordino

74%

Draw or Cordino

47%

Winning margin

Uniclinic Atletico Clube wins by 2+

27%

Cordino wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Uniclinic Atletico Clube 1+ goals

78%

Uniclinic Atletico Clube 2+ goals

45%

Uniclinic Atletico Clube 3+ goals

20%

Cordino 1+ goals

58%

Cordino 2+ goals

21%

Cordino 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Uniclinic Atletico Clube (draw refunded)

71%

Cordino (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uniclinic Atletico Clube at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

Cordino away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uniclinic Atletico Clube attack 1.30 + Cordino defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.52

Cordino attack 0.73 + Uniclinic Atletico Clube defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Uniclinic Atletico Clube scores more

53%

level

26%

Cordino scores more

21%

Uniclinic Atletico Clube at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Uniclinic Atletico Clube will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

Debu

46'

Davi← Diego Eduardo

55'

Ari← Ewerton Potiguar

55'

Lucas← Geilson

64'

Robson Pereira← Cássio

67'

Lucas

77'

Allyson← Debu

77'

André Radija← Jonatan

81'

William Wallace← Weslley Santos

85'

Pedro

90+8'

P. Victor

90'

Guilherme← João Guilherme

90'

Diogo Cutrim← Victor Viana

Uniclinic

Cordino

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Michel Lima

46'▲Davi←▼Diego Eduardo

55'▲Ari←▼Ewerton Potiguar

55'▲Lucas←▼Geilson

81'▲William Wallace←▼Weslley Santos

90'▲Guilherme←▼João Guilherme

Uniclinic Atletico Clube substitutes

DaviAriLucasWallaceGuilhermeWilgneElanardoRamosParaíbaSávioThiagoVictor

Manager: Marlon Cutrim

64'▲Robson Pereira←▼Cássio

77'▲Allyson←▼Debu

77'▲André Radija←▼Jonatan

90'▲Diogo Cutrim←▼Victor Viana

Cordino substitutes

PereiraAllysonRadijaCutrimSerafimParáVictor