Cordino 2–2 Uniclinic Atletico Clube

Cordino

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Uniclinic Atletico Clube

Cleuton Dudu 85'

Robson Pereira 45+5'

Pedro 45+6'

Ewerton Potiguar 31'

6/7/2023

Serie D · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Municipal Leandro Cláudio da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Cordino37%

×Draw26%

Uniclinic Atletico Clube37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CordinoExpected goals in this matchUniclinic Atletico Clube

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.34

Cordino

1.35

Uniclinic Atletico Clube

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 34 away

1.20

creates per match

1.29

1.40

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Cordino

1.20

Uniclinic Atletico Clube

1.29

allows per match

Cordino

1.40

Uniclinic Atletico Clube

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cordino+0.00on par

Uniclinic Atletico Clube+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cordino ↓

Uniclinic Atletico Clube →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cordino or draw

63%

Cordino or Uniclinic Atletico Clube

74%

Draw or Uniclinic Atletico Clube

63%

Winning margin

Cordino wins by 2+

17%

Uniclinic Atletico Clube wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Cordino 1+ goals

74%

Cordino 2+ goals

39%

Cordino 3+ goals

15%

Uniclinic Atletico Clube 1+ goals

74%

Uniclinic Atletico Clube 2+ goals

39%

Uniclinic Atletico Clube 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Cordino (draw refunded)

50%

Uniclinic Atletico Clube (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cordino at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Uniclinic Atletico Clube away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cordino attack 1.20 + Uniclinic Atletico Clube defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Uniclinic Atletico Clube attack 1.29 + Cordino defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cordino scores more

37%

level

26%

Uniclinic Atletico Clube scores more

37%

Cordino at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cordino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

31'

45+5'

45+6'

65'

Allyson← Ullisses

65'

Cássio← Paulo Victor

74'

Cleuton Dudu← Robson Pereira

74'

Sávio← Ewerton Potiguar

80'

Elanardo← João Guilherme

85'

Cleuton Dudu

90'

Paulinho← Patuta

Cordino

Uniclinic

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Pereira

Manager: Marlon Cutrim

14'▲Moises Lima←▼Keven

65'▲Allyson←▼Ullisses

65'▲Cássio←▼Paulo Victor

74'▲Cleuton Dudu←▼Robson Pereira

Cordino substitutes

LimaAllysonCássioDuduHenriqueEvertonParáVictorJonatanRivaldoVianaCarré

Manager: Michel Lima

74'▲Sávio←▼Ewerton Potiguar

80'▲Elanardo←▼João Guilherme

90'▲Paulinho←▼Patuta

Uniclinic Atletico Clube substitutes

SávioElanardoPaulinhoWilgneParaíbaSantosWallace