Uniclinic Atletico Clube 0–4 Caucaia

Uniclinic Atletico Clube

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Caucaia

Viana Lucas 88'

Douglinhas 44' (pen)

Jair Pitbull 33'

Ailton 20'

3/17/2025

Cearense - 2 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Municipal Presidente Getúlio Vargas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Uniclinic Atletico Clube26%

×Draw23%

Caucaia50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uniclinic Atletico ClubeExpected goals in this matchCaucaia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.79

Uniclinic Atletico Clube

1.23

Caucaia

1.79

Caucaia creates 46% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

1.13

creates per match

1.58

2.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Uniclinic Atletico Clube

1.13

Caucaia

1.58

allows per match

Uniclinic Atletico Clube

2.00

Caucaia

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uniclinic Atletico Clube+0.00on par

Caucaia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uniclinic Atletico Clube ↓

Caucaia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Uniclinic Atletico Clube or draw

50%

Uniclinic Atletico Clube or Caucaia

77%

Draw or Caucaia

74%

Winning margin

Uniclinic Atletico Clube wins by 2+

11%

Caucaia wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Uniclinic Atletico Clube 1+ goals

71%

Uniclinic Atletico Clube 2+ goals

35%

Uniclinic Atletico Clube 3+ goals

13%

Caucaia 1+ goals

83%

Caucaia 2+ goals

53%

Caucaia 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Uniclinic Atletico Clube (draw refunded)

34%

Caucaia (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uniclinic Atletico Clube at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Caucaia away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uniclinic Atletico Clube attack 1.13 + Caucaia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Caucaia attack 1.58 + Uniclinic Atletico Clube defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Uniclinic Atletico Clube scores more

26%

level

23%

Caucaia scores more

50%

Caucaia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Caucaia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

Ailton

33'

Jair Pitbull

44'

DouglinhasPenalty

88'

Viana Lucas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff