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Caucaia vs Uniclinic Atletico Clube — Cearense - 2 2019

Caucaia
Caucaia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Uniclinic Atletico Clube
Uniclinic Atletico Clube
Ailton 57'
2/15/2025Cearense - 2Cearense - 2 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Raimundo de Oliveira Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Caucaia48%
×Draw25%
Uniclinic Atletico Clube27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caucaia
1.64
Uniclinic Atletico Clube
1.16

Caucaia creates 41% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 9 away

creates per match

Caucaia
1.94
Uniclinic Atletico Clube
1.00

allows per match

Caucaia
1.31
Uniclinic Atletico Clube
1.33

finishing

Caucaia+0.00on par
Uniclinic Atletico Clube+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caucaia ↓

Uniclinic Atletico Clube →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Caucaia or draw
73%
Caucaia or Uniclinic Atletico Clube
75%
Draw or Uniclinic Atletico Clube
52%

Winning margin

Caucaia wins by 2+
25%
Uniclinic Atletico Clube wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Caucaia 1+ goals
81%
Caucaia 2+ goals
49%
Caucaia 3+ goals
23%
Uniclinic Atletico Clube 1+ goals
69%
Uniclinic Atletico Clube 2+ goals
32%
Uniclinic Atletico Clube 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Caucaia (draw refunded)
64%
Uniclinic Atletico Clube (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caucaia at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Uniclinic Atletico Clube away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caucaia attack 1.94 + Uniclinic Atletico Clube defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.64

Uniclinic Atletico Clube attack 1.00 + Caucaia defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Caucaia scores more
48%
level
25%
Uniclinic Atletico Clube scores more
27%

Caucaia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Caucaia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'
Ailton

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caucaia vs Uniclinic Atletico Clube

Caucaia beat Uniclinic Atletico Clube 1-0 in Cearense - 2 on February 15, 2025.

Goals: Ailton (57').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Raimundo de Oliveira Filho in Caucaia, Ceará.