Uniao Trabalhadores 3–1 Tombense: Result & Stats

Uniao Trabalhadores

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Tombense

2/28/2026

Mineiro - 1 · Troféu Inconfidência - Semi-finalsEstadio Zama Maciel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Uniao Trabalhadores34%

×Draw29%

Tombense37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uniao TrabalhadoresExpected goals in this matchTombense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.13

Uniao Trabalhadores

1.06

Tombense

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 42 away

0.91

creates per match

1.12

1.13

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Uniao Trabalhadores

0.91

Tombense

1.12

allows per match

Uniao Trabalhadores

1.13

Tombense

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uniao Trabalhadores+0.00on par

Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uniao Trabalhadores ↓

Tombense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Uniao Trabalhadores or draw

63%

Uniao Trabalhadores or Tombense

71%

Draw or Tombense

66%

Winning margin

Uniao Trabalhadores wins by 2+

13%

Tombense wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Uniao Trabalhadores 1+ goals

65%

Uniao Trabalhadores 2+ goals

29%

Uniao Trabalhadores 3+ goals

9%

Tombense 1+ goals

68%

Tombense 2+ goals

31%

Tombense 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Uniao Trabalhadores (draw refunded)

48%

Tombense (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uniao Trabalhadores at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

Tombense away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uniao Trabalhadores attack 0.91 + Tombense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.06

Tombense attack 1.12 + Uniao Trabalhadores defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Uniao Trabalhadores scores more

34%

level

29%

Tombense scores more

37%

Tombense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff