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Tombense vs Uniao Trabalhadores — Mineiro - 1 2020

Tombense
Tombense
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Uniao Trabalhadores
Uniao Trabalhadores
2/7/2026Mineiro - 1Mineiro - 1 · Round 7Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Tombense60%
×Draw25%
Uniao Trabalhadores15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tombense
1.56
Uniao Trabalhadores
0.63

Tombense creates 148% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 22 away

creates per match

Tombense
1.44
Uniao Trabalhadores
0.45

allows per match

Tombense
0.80
Uniao Trabalhadores
1.68

finishing

Tombense+0.00on par
Uniao Trabalhadores+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tombense ↓

Uniao Trabalhadores →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tombense or draw
85%
Tombense or Uniao Trabalhadores
75%
Draw or Uniao Trabalhadores
40%

Winning margin

Tombense wins by 2+
32%
Uniao Trabalhadores wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Tombense 1+ goals
79%
Tombense 2+ goals
46%
Tombense 3+ goals
21%
Uniao Trabalhadores 1+ goals
47%
Uniao Trabalhadores 2+ goals
13%
Uniao Trabalhadores 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Tombense (draw refunded)
80%
Uniao Trabalhadores (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tombense at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.80 · 41 matches

Uniao Trabalhadores away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tombense attack 1.44 + Uniao Trabalhadores defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.56

Uniao Trabalhadores attack 0.45 + Tombense defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Tombense scores more
60%
level
25%
Uniao Trabalhadores scores more
15%

Tombense at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 1: Tombense 3–1 Uniao Trabalhadores

Tombense beat Uniao Trabalhadores 3-1 in Mineiro - 1 on February 7, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida in Tombos.