Uniao Trabalhadores 0–1 Pouso Alegre

Uniao Trabalhadores

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Pouso Alegre

Denner 45+3'

4/30/2022

Serie D · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Zama Maciel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Uniao Trabalhadores43%

×Draw29%

Pouso Alegre27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uniao TrabalhadoresExpected goals in this matchPouso Alegre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.90

Uniao Trabalhadores

1.21

Pouso Alegre

0.90

Uniao Trabalhadores creates 34% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 31 away

1.27

creates per match

0.52

1.27

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Uniao Trabalhadores

1.27

Pouso Alegre

0.52

allows per match

Uniao Trabalhadores

1.27

Pouso Alegre

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uniao Trabalhadores+0.00on par

Pouso Alegre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uniao Trabalhadores ↓

Pouso Alegre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Uniao Trabalhadores or draw

73%

Uniao Trabalhadores or Pouso Alegre

71%

Draw or Pouso Alegre

57%

Winning margin

Uniao Trabalhadores wins by 2+

19%

Pouso Alegre wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Uniao Trabalhadores 1+ goals

70%

Uniao Trabalhadores 2+ goals

34%

Uniao Trabalhadores 3+ goals

12%

Pouso Alegre 1+ goals

59%

Pouso Alegre 2+ goals

23%

Pouso Alegre 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Uniao Trabalhadores (draw refunded)

61%

Pouso Alegre (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uniao Trabalhadores at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Pouso Alegre away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.16 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uniao Trabalhadores attack 1.27 + Pouso Alegre defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Pouso Alegre attack 0.52 + Uniao Trabalhadores defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Uniao Trabalhadores scores more

43%

level

29%

Pouso Alegre scores more

27%

Uniao Trabalhadores at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Uniao Trabalhadores will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+3'

Denner

46'

Matheus Marques← Miguel

54'

Matheus Henrique← Matheus Rebé

58'

Igor Pereira← Paraíba

58'

Reinaldo← Denner

65'

Mateus Canhota← Mael

71'

Tales← Adsonnaldo

71'

Michael Paulista← Lucas Reis

79'

Caique← Willian Mococa

79'

Wendel← Madson

Uniao

Pouso

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Ricardo Severo

46'▲Matheus Marques←▼Miguel

54'▲Matheus Henrique←▼Matheus Rebé

65'▲Mateus Canhota←▼Mael

71'▲Tales←▼Adsonnaldo

Uniao Trabalhadores substitutes

MarquesHenriqueCanhotaTalesBrunoRojasTeloValdomiroGuilherme

58'▲Igor Pereira←▼Paraíba

58'▲Reinaldo←▼Denner

71'▲Michael Paulista←▼Lucas Reis

79'▲Caique←▼Willian Mococa

79'▲Wendel←▼Madson

Pouso Alegre substitutes

PereiraReinaldoPaulistaCaiqueWendelDaniloRodriguesLeonardo