Pouso Alegre 2–0 Uniao Trabalhadores

Pouso Alegre

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Uniao Trabalhadores

Ingro 16'

Marcos Nunes 12'

7/3/2022

Serie D · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Municipal Irmão Gino Maria Rossi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Pouso Alegre55%

×Draw29%

Uniao Trabalhadores16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pouso AlegreExpected goals in this matchUniao Trabalhadores

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.56

Pouso Alegre

1.29

Uniao Trabalhadores

0.56

Pouso Alegre creates 130% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 14 away

1.16

creates per match

0.57

0.55

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Pouso Alegre

1.16

Uniao Trabalhadores

0.57

allows per match

Pouso Alegre

0.55

Uniao Trabalhadores

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pouso Alegre+0.00on par

Uniao Trabalhadores+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pouso Alegre ↓

Uniao Trabalhadores →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–19%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Pouso Alegre or draw

84%

Pouso Alegre or Uniao Trabalhadores

71%

Draw or Uniao Trabalhadores

45%

Winning margin

Pouso Alegre wins by 2+

26%

Uniao Trabalhadores wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Pouso Alegre 1+ goals

72%

Pouso Alegre 2+ goals

37%

Pouso Alegre 3+ goals

14%

Uniao Trabalhadores 1+ goals

43%

Uniao Trabalhadores 2+ goals

11%

Uniao Trabalhadores 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Pouso Alegre (draw refunded)

77%

Uniao Trabalhadores (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pouso Alegre at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.55 · 31 matches

Uniao Trabalhadores away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pouso Alegre attack 1.16 + Uniao Trabalhadores defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

Uniao Trabalhadores attack 0.57 + Pouso Alegre defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Pouso Alegre scores more

55%

level

29%

Uniao Trabalhadores scores more

16%

Pouso Alegre at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Pouso Alegre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Marcos Nunes

16'

Ingro

46'

Luiz Eduardo← Gustavo Lobó

70'

Franklin← Michael Paulista

70'

Jhonatan← Marcos Nunes

70'

Mael← Augusto Recife

82'

Mateus Canhota← Banguelê

83'

Igor Pereira← Roldan

85'

Luan Nazário← Júnior Carioca

Pouso

Uniao

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Nunes

⚽

Ingro

▼

Paulista

Manager: Paulo Roberto Santos

70'▲Franklin←▼Michael Paulista

70'▲Jhonatan←▼Marcos Nunes

83'▲Igor Pereira←▼Roldan

Pouso Alegre substitutes

FranklinJhonatanPereiraCairoDaniloDennerLeonardoReisParaíba

Manager: Ricardo Severo

46'▲Luiz Eduardo←▼Gustavo Lobó

70'▲Mael←▼Augusto Recife

82'▲Mateus Canhota←▼Banguelê

85'▲Luan Nazário←▼Júnior Carioca

Uniao Trabalhadores substitutes

EduardoMaelCanhotaNazárioMatheusAdsonnaldoAgnaldoErnandesMurylo