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Uniao Trabalhadores vs Caldense — Mineiro - 2 2026

Uniao Trabalhadores
Uniao Trabalhadores
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Caldense
Caldense
Lelo 85', 74'
Wesley 23'
Alan Calbergue 62'
Ze Artur 48'
6/16/2024Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 9Estádio Zama Maciel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Uniao Trabalhadores50%
×Draw28%
Caldense22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uniao Trabalhadores
1.37
Caldense
0.82

Uniao Trabalhadores creates 67% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 15 away

creates per match

Uniao Trabalhadores
1.27
Caldense
0.73

allows per match

Uniao Trabalhadores
0.92
Caldense
1.47

finishing

Uniao Trabalhadores+0.00on par
Caldense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 63Over: 3763%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 58Yes: 4258%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uniao Trabalhadores ↓

Caldense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Uniao Trabalhadores or draw
78%
Uniao Trabalhadores or Caldense
72%
Draw or Caldense
50%

Winning margin

Uniao Trabalhadores wins by 2+
24%
Caldense wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Uniao Trabalhadores 1+ goals
75%
Uniao Trabalhadores 2+ goals
40%
Uniao Trabalhadores 3+ goals
16%
Caldense 1+ goals
56%
Caldense 2+ goals
20%
Caldense 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Uniao Trabalhadores (draw refunded)
69%
Caldense (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uniao Trabalhadores at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

Caldense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uniao Trabalhadores attack 1.27 + Caldense defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.37

Caldense attack 0.73 + Uniao Trabalhadores defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Uniao Trabalhadores scores more
50%
level
28%
Caldense scores more
22%

Uniao Trabalhadores at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Uniao Trabalhadores will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
Wesley
48'
Ze Artur
62'
Alan Calbergue
74'
Lelo
85'
Lelo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uniao Trabalhadores vs Caldense

Uniao Trabalhadores beat Caldense 3-2 in Mineiro - 2 on June 16, 2024.

Goals: Wesley (23'), Ze Artur (48'), Alan Calbergue (62'), Lelo (74', 85').

The match was played at Estádio Zama Maciel in Patos de Minas, Minas Gerais.