Caldense 0–1 Uniao Trabalhadores: Result & Stats

Caldense

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Uniao Trabalhadores

D. Costa 66' (pen)

6/15/2025

Mineiro - 2 · Round 9Estádio Dr. Ronaldo Junqueira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Caldense30%

×Draw34%

Uniao Trabalhadores36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CaldenseExpected goals in this matchUniao Trabalhadores

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.79

0.91

Caldense

0.79

Uniao Trabalhadores

0.91

Uniao Trabalhadores creates 15% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 23 away

0.67

creates per match

1.22

0.60

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Caldense

0.67

Uniao Trabalhadores

1.22

allows per match

Caldense

0.60

Uniao Trabalhadores

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caldense+0.00on par

Uniao Trabalhadores+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caldense ↓

Uniao Trabalhadores →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–117%

0–28%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Caldense or draw

64%

Caldense or Uniao Trabalhadores

66%

Draw or Uniao Trabalhadores

70%

Winning margin

Caldense wins by 2+

9%

Uniao Trabalhadores wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Caldense 1+ goals

55%

Caldense 2+ goals

19%

Caldense 3+ goals

5%

Uniao Trabalhadores 1+ goals

60%

Uniao Trabalhadores 2+ goals

23%

Uniao Trabalhadores 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Caldense (draw refunded)

45%

Uniao Trabalhadores (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caldense at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Uniao Trabalhadores away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.91 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caldense attack 0.67 + Uniao Trabalhadores defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.79

Uniao Trabalhadores attack 1.22 + Caldense defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Caldense scores more

30%

level

34%

Uniao Trabalhadores scores more

36%

Uniao Trabalhadores at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Uniao Trabalhadores will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'

D. CostaPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff