União São João U20 1–0 Rio Branco U20

União São João U20

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rio Branco U20

Unknown 60'

5/10/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Dr. Hermínio Ometto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

União São João U2032%

×Draw26%

Rio Branco U2042%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

União São João U20Expected goals in this matchRio Branco U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.43

União São João U20

1.20

Rio Branco U20

1.43

Rio Branco U20 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

1.85

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

União São João U20

1.00

Rio Branco U20

1.00

allows per match

União São João U20

1.85

Rio Branco U20

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

União São João U20+0.00on par

Rio Branco U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União São João U20 ↓

Rio Branco U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

União São João U20 or draw

58%

União São João U20 or Rio Branco U20

74%

Draw or Rio Branco U20

68%

Winning margin

União São João U20 wins by 2+

13%

Rio Branco U20 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

União São João U20 1+ goals

70%

União São João U20 2+ goals

34%

União São João U20 3+ goals

12%

Rio Branco U20 1+ goals

76%

Rio Branco U20 2+ goals

42%

Rio Branco U20 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

União São João U20 (draw refunded)

43%

Rio Branco U20 (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União São João U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

Rio Branco U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União São João U20 attack 1.00 + Rio Branco U20 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Rio Branco U20 attack 1.00 + União São João U20 defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

União São João U20 scores more

32%

level

26%

Rio Branco U20 scores more

42%

Rio Branco U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rio Branco U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff