Rio Branco U20 0–1 União São João U20

Rio Branco U20

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

União São João U20

Mateus Manga 15'

6/14/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Décio Vitta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rio Branco U2040%

×Draw25%

União São João U2036%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rio Branco U20Expected goals in this matchUnião São João U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.40

Rio Branco U20

1.49

União São João U20

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 19 away

1.60

creates per match

1.00

1.80

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Rio Branco U20

1.60

União São João U20

1.00

allows per match

Rio Branco U20

1.80

União São João U20

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rio Branco U20+0.00on par

União São João U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Branco U20 ↓

União São João U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Rio Branco U20 or draw

64%

Rio Branco U20 or União São João U20

75%

Draw or União São João U20

60%

Winning margin

Rio Branco U20 wins by 2+

19%

União São João U20 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Rio Branco U20 1+ goals

77%

Rio Branco U20 2+ goals

44%

Rio Branco U20 3+ goals

19%

União São João U20 1+ goals

75%

União São João U20 2+ goals

41%

União São João U20 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Rio Branco U20 (draw refunded)

53%

União São João U20 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Branco U20 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

União São João U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Branco U20 attack 1.60 + União São João U20 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.49

União São João U20 attack 1.00 + Rio Branco U20 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rio Branco U20 scores more

40%

level

25%

União São João U20 scores more

36%

Rio Branco U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rio Branco U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Mateus Manga

19'

Raphi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff