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União São João U20 vs Independente SP U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

União São João U20
União São João U20
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Independente SP U20
Independente SP U20
Unknown 90+4', 56'
Unknown 68', 63'
4/19/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Dr. Hermínio Ometto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

União São João U2042%
×Draw24%
Independente SP U2034%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

União São João U20
1.60
Independente SP U20
1.43

União São João U20 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 5 away

creates per match

União São João U20
1.00
Independente SP U20
1.00

allows per match

União São João U20
1.85
Independente SP U20
2.20

finishing

União São João U20+0.00on par
Independente SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União São João U20 ↓

Independente SP U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

União São João U20 or draw
66%
União São João U20 or Independente SP U20
76%
Draw or Independente SP U20
58%

Winning margin

União São João U20 wins by 2+
21%
Independente SP U20 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

União São João U20 1+ goals
80%
União São João U20 2+ goals
47%
União São João U20 3+ goals
22%
Independente SP U20 1+ goals
76%
Independente SP U20 2+ goals
42%
Independente SP U20 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

União São João U20 (draw refunded)
55%
Independente SP U20 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União São João U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

Independente SP U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União São João U20 attack 1.00 + Independente SP U20 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Independente SP U20 attack 1.00 + União São João U20 defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

União São João U20 scores more
42%
level
24%
Independente SP U20 scores more
34%

União São João U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "União São João U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
63'
68'
90+4'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: União São João U20 2–2 Independente SP U20

União São João U20 and Independente SP U20 drew 2-2 in Paulista - U20 on April 19, 2024.

Goals: ? (56', 63', 68', 90+4').

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Hermínio Ometto in Araras, São Paulo.