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Independente SP U20 vs União São João U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Independente SP U20
Independente SP U20
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
União São João U20
União São João U20
5/24/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Comendador Agostinho Prada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Independente SP U2023%
×Draw23%
União São João U2054%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independente SP U20
1.08
União São João U20
1.80

União São João U20 creates 67% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 19 away

creates per match

Independente SP U20
0.80
União São João U20
1.00

allows per match

Independente SP U20
2.60
União São João U20
1.37

finishing

Independente SP U20+0.00on par
União São João U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independente SP U20 ↓

União São João U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Independente SP U20 or draw
46%
Independente SP U20 or União São João U20
77%
Draw or União São João U20
77%

Winning margin

Independente SP U20 wins by 2+
8%
União São João U20 wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Independente SP U20 1+ goals
66%
Independente SP U20 2+ goals
29%
Independente SP U20 3+ goals
10%
União São João U20 1+ goals
83%
União São João U20 2+ goals
54%
União São João U20 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Independente SP U20 (draw refunded)
30%
União São João U20 (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independente SP U20 at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

União São João U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independente SP U20 attack 0.80 + União São João U20 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.08

União São João U20 attack 1.00 + Independente SP U20 defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Independente SP U20 scores more
23%
level
23%
União São João U20 scores more
54%

União São João U20 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "União São João U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Independente SP U20 1–4 União São João U20

União São João U20 beat Independente SP U20 4-1 in Paulista - U20 on May 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Comendador Agostinho Prada in Limeira, São Paulo.