União São João U20 1–1 Cosmopolitano Sports U20

União São João U20

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cosmopolitano Sports U20

Mateus Manga 74'

Kaike 68'

5/31/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Dr. Hermínio Ometto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

União São João U2025%

×Draw26%

Cosmopolitano Sports U2049%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

União São João U20Expected goals in this matchCosmopolitano Sports U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.52

União São João U20

1.00

Cosmopolitano Sports U20

1.52

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 creates 52% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

1.20

1.85

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

União São João U20

1.00

Cosmopolitano Sports U20

1.20

allows per match

União São João U20

1.85

Cosmopolitano Sports U20

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

União São João U20+0.00on par

Cosmopolitano Sports U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União São João U20 ↓

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

União São João U20 or draw

51%

União São João U20 or Cosmopolitano Sports U20

74%

Draw or Cosmopolitano Sports U20

75%

Winning margin

União São João U20 wins by 2+

9%

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

União São João U20 1+ goals

63%

União São João U20 2+ goals

26%

União São João U20 3+ goals

8%

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 1+ goals

78%

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 2+ goals

45%

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

União São João U20 (draw refunded)

34%

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União São João U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União São João U20 attack 1.00 + Cosmopolitano Sports U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 attack 1.20 + União São João U20 defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

União São João U20 scores more

25%

level

26%

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 scores more

49%

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cosmopolitano Sports U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

68'

Kaike

74'

Mateus Manga

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff