Cosmopolitano Sports U20 1–0 União São João U20

Cosmopolitano Sports U20

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

União São João U20

Unknown 35'

4/26/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Thelmo de Almeida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cosmopolitano Sports U2042%

×Draw32%

União São João U2027%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cosmopolitano Sports U20Expected goals in this matchUnião São João U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.80

Cosmopolitano Sports U20

1.08

União São João U20

0.80

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 19 away

0.80

creates per match

1.00

0.60

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Cosmopolitano Sports U20

0.80

União São João U20

1.00

allows per match

Cosmopolitano Sports U20

0.60

União São João U20

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cosmopolitano Sports U20+0.00on par

União São João U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 ↓

União São João U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 or draw

73%

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 or União São João U20

68%

Draw or União São João U20

58%

Winning margin

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 wins by 2+

17%

União São João U20 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 1+ goals

66%

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 2+ goals

29%

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 3+ goals

10%

União São João U20 1+ goals

55%

União São João U20 2+ goals

19%

União São João U20 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 (draw refunded)

61%

União São João U20 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

União São João U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 attack 0.80 + União São João U20 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.08

União São João U20 attack 1.00 + Cosmopolitano Sports U20 defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 scores more

42%

level

32%

União São João U20 scores more

27%

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cosmopolitano Sports U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff