União Santarém 3–0 Sporting CP B: Result & Stats

União Santarém

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Sporting CP B

Leandro Silva 90'

Ricardo Apolinário 15' (pen)

P. Sagna 6'

8/18/2024

Liga 3 · Round 3Campo Chã das Padeiras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

União Santarém37%

×Draw28%

Sporting CP B35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

União SantarémExpected goals in this matchSporting CP B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.15

União Santarém

1.18

Sporting CP B

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 58 away

1.09

creates per match

1.14

1.16

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

União Santarém

1.09

Sporting CP B

1.14

allows per match

União Santarém

1.16

Sporting CP B

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

União Santarém+0.00on par

Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União Santarém ↓

Sporting CP B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

União Santarém or draw

65%

União Santarém or Sporting CP B

72%

Draw or Sporting CP B

63%

Winning margin

União Santarém wins by 2+

15%

Sporting CP B wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

União Santarém 1+ goals

69%

União Santarém 2+ goals

33%

União Santarém 3+ goals

12%

Sporting CP B 1+ goals

68%

Sporting CP B 2+ goals

32%

Sporting CP B 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

União Santarém (draw refunded)

51%

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União Santarém at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches

Sporting CP B away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.26 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União Santarém attack 1.09 + Sporting CP B defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Sporting CP B attack 1.14 + União Santarém defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

União Santarém scores more

37%

level

28%

Sporting CP B scores more

35%

União Santarém at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "União Santarém will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

P. Sagna

14'

M. Alves

15'

Ricardo ApolinárioPenalty

46'

Manuel Mendonça← Miguel Alves

46'

Samuel Justo← Kauã Oliveira

46'

Rodrigo Marquês← Lucas Anjos

46'

Nilton Cardoso← Luís Gomes

56'

R. Alcobia

59'

Tangu Gastão← Rúben Araújo

69'

Diogo Balau← Juninho

71'

M. Mendonca

74'

Leonardo Barroso← Lucas Taibo

77'

D. Balau

88'

K. Sebastian← Jaime

88'

Diogo Brás← João Machado

88'

Bruno Figueiredo← Rodrigo Guedes

90'

Leandro Silva

União

Sporting

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Carlos Fernandes

59'▲Tangu Gastão←▼Rúben Araújo

69'▲Diogo Balau←▼Juninho

88'▲K. Sebastian←▼Jaime

88'▲Diogo Brás←▼João Machado

88'▲Bruno Figueiredo←▼Rodrigo Guedes

União Santarém substitutes

GastãoBalauSebastianBrásFigueiredo

Manager: João Pereira

46'▲Manuel Mendonça←▼Miguel Alves

46'▲Samuel Justo←▼Kauã Oliveira

46'▲Rodrigo Marquês←▼Lucas Anjos

46'▲Nilton Cardoso←▼Luís Gomes

74'▲Leonardo Barroso←▼Lucas Taibo

Sporting CP B substitutes

MendonçaJustoMarquêsCardosoBarroso

Match Recap: União Santarém vs Sporting CP B

União Santarém beat Sporting CP B 3-0 in Liga 3 on August 18, 2024.

Goals: P. Sagna (6'), Ricardo Apolinário (15' pen), Leandro Silva (90').

The match was played at Campo Chã das Padeiras in Santarém.

União Santarém vs Sporting CP B — Liga 3 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: União Santarém vs Sporting CP B