Sporting CP B 1–2 União Santarém: Result & Stats

Sporting CP B

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

União Santarém

Rafael Tavares 48'

Yago Caju 57'

Leonardo Chão 29' (pen)

12/22/2021

Liga 3 · Round 11CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Sporting CP B43%

×Draw28%

União Santarém29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CP BExpected goals in this matchUnião Santarém

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.02

Sporting CP B

1.32

União Santarém

1.02

Sporting CP B creates 29% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 44 away

1.47

creates per match

1.09

0.95

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Sporting CP B

1.47

União Santarém

1.09

allows per match

Sporting CP B

0.95

União Santarém

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting CP B+0.00on par

União Santarém+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP B ↓

União Santarém →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sporting CP B or draw

71%

Sporting CP B or União Santarém

72%

Draw or União Santarém

57%

Winning margin

Sporting CP B wins by 2+

20%

União Santarém wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sporting CP B 1+ goals

73%

Sporting CP B 2+ goals

38%

Sporting CP B 3+ goals

15%

União Santarém 1+ goals

64%

União Santarém 2+ goals

27%

União Santarém 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)

60%

União Santarém (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP B at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.95 · 58 matches

União Santarém away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.18 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP B attack 1.47 + União Santarém defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.32

União Santarém attack 1.09 + Sporting CP B defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sporting CP B scores more

43%

level

28%

União Santarém scores more

29%

Sporting CP B at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sporting CP B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Leonardo ChãoPenalty

33'

48'

57'

64'

64'

72'

Tiago Rodrigues← Diogo Travassos

75'

João Monteiro← Jardel Nazaré

82'

Edson Silva← Hevertton

82'

Kiko Félix← Mateus Fernandes

83'

Bruno Mendonça← Diogo Motty

Sporting

União

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Filipe Çelikkaya

33'▲Bernardo Sousa←▼Geny

72'▲Tiago Rodrigues←▼Diogo Travassos

82'▲Edson Silva←▼Hevertton

82'▲Kiko Félix←▼Mateus Fernandes

Sporting CP B substitutes

SousaRodriguesSilvaFélix

Manager: André David

75'▲João Monteiro←▼Jardel Nazaré

83'▲Bruno Mendonça←▼Diogo Motty

União Santarém substitutes

MonteiroMendonça