União Santarém 2–0 Oliveira Hospital

União Santarém

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Oliveira Hospital

3/2/2025

Liga 3 · Relegation Round - 3Campo Chã das Padeiras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

União Santarém43%

×Draw28%

Oliveira Hospital29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

União SantarémExpected goals in this matchOliveira Hospital

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.04

União Santarém

1.33

Oliveira Hospital

1.04

União Santarém creates 28% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 56 away

1.09

creates per match

0.93

1.16

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

União Santarém

1.09

Oliveira Hospital

0.93

allows per match

União Santarém

1.16

Oliveira Hospital

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

União Santarém+0.00on par

Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União Santarém ↓

Oliveira Hospital →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

União Santarém or draw

71%

União Santarém or Oliveira Hospital

72%

Draw or Oliveira Hospital

57%

Winning margin

União Santarém wins by 2+

20%

Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

União Santarém 1+ goals

74%

União Santarém 2+ goals

38%

União Santarém 3+ goals

15%

Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals

65%

Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals

28%

Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

União Santarém (draw refunded)

60%

Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União Santarém at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches

Oliveira Hospital away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União Santarém attack 1.09 + Oliveira Hospital defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

Oliveira Hospital attack 0.93 + União Santarém defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

União Santarém scores more

43%

level

28%

Oliveira Hospital scores more

29%

União Santarém at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "União Santarém will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff