Oliveira Hospital 0–2 União Santarém

Oliveira Hospital

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

União Santarém

4/6/2025

Liga 3 · Relegation Round - 7Estádio Municipal de Tábua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Oliveira Hospital39%

×Draw27%

União Santarém33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oliveira HospitalExpected goals in this matchUnião Santarém

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.16

Oliveira Hospital

1.28

União Santarém

1.16

Oliveira Hospital creates 10% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 44 away

1.38

creates per match

1.09

1.23

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Oliveira Hospital

1.38

União Santarém

1.09

allows per match

Oliveira Hospital

1.23

União Santarém

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par

União Santarém+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oliveira Hospital ↓

União Santarém →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Oliveira Hospital or draw

67%

Oliveira Hospital or União Santarém

73%

Draw or União Santarém

61%

Winning margin

Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+

17%

União Santarém wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals

72%

Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals

37%

Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals

14%

União Santarém 1+ goals

69%

União Santarém 2+ goals

32%

União Santarém 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)

54%

União Santarém (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oliveira Hospital at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 56 matches

União Santarém away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.18 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oliveira Hospital attack 1.38 + União Santarém defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.28

União Santarém attack 1.09 + Oliveira Hospital defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Oliveira Hospital scores more

39%

level

27%

União Santarém scores more

33%

Oliveira Hospital at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Oliveira Hospital will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff