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União Rondonópolis vs Goiatuba EC — Serie D 2026

União Rondonópolis
União Rondonópolis
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Goiatuba EC
Goiatuba EC
5/9/2026Serie DSerie D · Round 6Municipal Stadium Engineer Luthero Lopes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

União Rondonópolis38%
×Draw28%
Goiatuba EC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

União Rondonópolis
1.22
Goiatuba EC
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 16 away

creates per match

União Rondonópolis
1.37
Goiatuba EC
1.31

allows per match

União Rondonópolis
0.97
Goiatuba EC
1.06

finishing

União Rondonópolis+0.00on par
Goiatuba EC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 58Over: 4258%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União Rondonópolis ↓

Goiatuba EC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

União Rondonópolis or draw
66%
União Rondonópolis or Goiatuba EC
72%
Draw or Goiatuba EC
62%

Winning margin

União Rondonópolis wins by 2+
16%
Goiatuba EC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

União Rondonópolis 1+ goals
70%
União Rondonópolis 2+ goals
34%
União Rondonópolis 3+ goals
12%
Goiatuba EC 1+ goals
68%
Goiatuba EC 2+ goals
32%
Goiatuba EC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

União Rondonópolis (draw refunded)
53%
Goiatuba EC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União Rondonópolis at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.97 · 38 matches

Goiatuba EC away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União Rondonópolis attack 1.37 + Goiatuba EC defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.22

Goiatuba EC attack 1.31 + União Rondonópolis defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

União Rondonópolis scores more
38%
level
28%
Goiatuba EC scores more
34%

União Rondonópolis at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "União Rondonópolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: União Rondonópolis 0–0 Goiatuba EC

União Rondonópolis and Goiatuba EC drew 0-0 in Serie D on May 9, 2026.

The match was played at Municipal Stadium Engineer Luthero Lopes.