Goiatuba EC 5–1 União Rondonópolis: Result & Stats

Goiatuba EC

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

União Rondonópolis

Fagner 90'

Julio Vitor 56'

Gabriel Silva 49', 42'

Thalles 17'

Daniel Cruz 13'

5/2/2026

Serie D · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Goiatuba EC51%

×Draw26%

União Rondonópolis23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Goiatuba ECExpected goals in this matchUnião Rondonópolis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.91

Goiatuba EC

1.52

União Rondonópolis

0.91

Goiatuba EC creates 67% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 39 away

1.33

creates per match

1.10

0.72

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Goiatuba EC

1.33

União Rondonópolis

1.10

allows per match

Goiatuba EC

0.72

União Rondonópolis

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Goiatuba EC+0.00on par

União Rondonópolis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goiatuba EC ↓

União Rondonópolis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Goiatuba EC or draw

77%

Goiatuba EC or União Rondonópolis

74%

Draw or União Rondonópolis

49%

Winning margin

Goiatuba EC wins by 2+

26%

União Rondonópolis wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Goiatuba EC 1+ goals

78%

Goiatuba EC 2+ goals

45%

Goiatuba EC 3+ goals

20%

União Rondonópolis 1+ goals

60%

União Rondonópolis 2+ goals

23%

União Rondonópolis 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Goiatuba EC (draw refunded)

69%

União Rondonópolis (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goiatuba EC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches

União Rondonópolis away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.72 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goiatuba EC attack 1.33 + União Rondonópolis defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.52

União Rondonópolis attack 1.10 + Goiatuba EC defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Goiatuba EC scores more

51%

level

26%

União Rondonópolis scores more

23%

Goiatuba EC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Goiatuba EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

17'

42'

49'

56'

90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff