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União Rondonópolis vs CEOV Operário — Serie D 2026

União Rondonópolis
União Rondonópolis
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
CEOV Operário
CEOV Operário
Ruan 49'
Mateus Goiano 45'
Augusto 90'
4/26/2026Serie DSerie D · Round 4Municipal Stadium Engineer Luthero Lopes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

União Rondonópolis49%
×Draw28%
CEOV Operário23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

União Rondonópolis
1.38
CEOV Operário
0.85

União Rondonópolis creates 62% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 26 away

creates per match

União Rondonópolis
1.37
CEOV Operário
0.73

allows per match

União Rondonópolis
0.97
CEOV Operário
1.38

finishing

União Rondonópolis+0.00on par
CEOV Operário+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União Rondonópolis ↓

CEOV Operário →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

União Rondonópolis or draw
77%
União Rondonópolis or CEOV Operário
72%
Draw or CEOV Operário
51%

Winning margin

União Rondonópolis wins by 2+
24%
CEOV Operário wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

União Rondonópolis 1+ goals
75%
União Rondonópolis 2+ goals
40%
União Rondonópolis 3+ goals
16%
CEOV Operário 1+ goals
57%
CEOV Operário 2+ goals
21%
CEOV Operário 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

União Rondonópolis (draw refunded)
68%
CEOV Operário (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União Rondonópolis at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.97 · 38 matches

CEOV Operário away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União Rondonópolis attack 1.37 + CEOV Operário defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

CEOV Operário attack 0.73 + União Rondonópolis defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

União Rondonópolis scores more
49%
level
28%
CEOV Operário scores more
23%

União Rondonópolis at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "União Rondonópolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
Mateus Goiano
49'
Ruan
90'
Augusto

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: União Rondonópolis vs CEOV Operário

União Rondonópolis beat CEOV Operário 2-1 in Serie D on April 26, 2026.

Goals: Mateus Goiano (45'), Ruan (49'), Augusto (90').

The match was played at Municipal Stadium Engineer Luthero Lopes.