CEOV Operário 2–1 União Rondonópolis

CEOV Operário

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

União Rondonópolis

João Vitor 80'

Marcão 2'

Gersinho 6'

7/9/2023

Serie D · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Dito Souza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

CEOV Operário46%

×Draw25%

União Rondonópolis29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CEOV OperárioExpected goals in this matchUnião Rondonópolis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.18

CEOV Operário

1.54

União Rondonópolis

1.18

CEOV Operário creates 31% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 39 away

1.36

creates per match

1.10

1.25

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

CEOV Operário

1.36

União Rondonópolis

1.10

allows per match

CEOV Operário

1.25

União Rondonópolis

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CEOV Operário+0.00on par

União Rondonópolis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CEOV Operário ↓

União Rondonópolis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

CEOV Operário or draw

71%

CEOV Operário or União Rondonópolis

75%

Draw or União Rondonópolis

54%

Winning margin

CEOV Operário wins by 2+

23%

União Rondonópolis wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

CEOV Operário 1+ goals

79%

CEOV Operário 2+ goals

45%

CEOV Operário 3+ goals

20%

União Rondonópolis 1+ goals

69%

União Rondonópolis 2+ goals

33%

União Rondonópolis 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

CEOV Operário (draw refunded)

61%

União Rondonópolis (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CEOV Operário at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

União Rondonópolis away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.72 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CEOV Operário attack 1.36 + União Rondonópolis defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.54

União Rondonópolis attack 1.10 + CEOV Operário defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

CEOV Operário scores more

46%

level

25%

União Rondonópolis scores more

29%

CEOV Operário at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CEOV Operário will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

Marcão

6'

Gersinho

40'

Vitor Ruas← Matheus Azevedo

60'

Dagson← Lelo

68'

Giancarlo← Gersinho

77'

Wellington← Allef Nunes

79'

Douglas Nathan← Deivisson

79'

Lucas Néwiton← Serginho

79'

Luiz Lelis← Dagson

80'

João Vitor

90'

Carlos Henrique← Roney

CEOV

União

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Manager: Luiz Gabardo

40'▲Vitor Ruas←▼Matheus Azevedo

77'▲Wellington←▼Allef Nunes

90'▲Carlos Henrique←▼Roney

CEOV Operário substitutes

RuasWellingtonHenriqueSouzaCíceroDuduPupinskiKleberPaulinhoVenicio

Manager: Odil Soares

60'▲Dagson←▼Lelo

68'▲Giancarlo←▼Gersinho

79'▲Douglas Nathan←▼Deivisson

79'▲Lucas Néwiton←▼Serginho

79'▲Luiz Lelis←▼Dagson

União Rondonópolis substitutes

DagsonGiancarloNathanNéwitonLelisÍndioNeresJúniorTomJalysson

Serie D: CEOV Operário 2–1 União Rondonópolis

CEOV Operário beat União Rondonópolis 2-1 in Serie D on July 9, 2023.

Goals: Marcão (2'), Gersinho (6'), João Vitor (80').

The match was played at Estádio Dito Souza in Várzea Grande, Mato Grosso.

CEOV Operário vs União Rondonópolis — Serie D 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie D: CEOV Operário 2–1 União Rondonópolis