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Uniao Mogi vs Mauaense — Paulista Série B 2026

Uniao Mogi
Uniao Mogi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mauaense
Mauaense
Unknown 34'
Unknown 74'
4/19/2025Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Francisco Ribeiro Nogueira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Uniao Mogi39%
×Draw26%
Mauaense34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uniao Mogi
1.35
Mauaense
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

creates per match

Uniao Mogi
1.31
Mauaense
0.95

allows per match

Uniao Mogi
1.56
Mauaense
1.40

finishing

Uniao Mogi+0.00on par
Mauaense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 52Over: 4852%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uniao Mogi ↓

Mauaense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Uniao Mogi or draw
66%
Uniao Mogi or Mauaense
74%
Draw or Mauaense
61%

Winning margin

Uniao Mogi wins by 2+
18%
Mauaense wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Uniao Mogi 1+ goals
74%
Uniao Mogi 2+ goals
39%
Uniao Mogi 3+ goals
15%
Mauaense 1+ goals
71%
Mauaense 2+ goals
36%
Mauaense 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Uniao Mogi (draw refunded)
53%
Mauaense (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uniao Mogi at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Mauaense away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uniao Mogi attack 1.31 + Mauaense defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.35

Mauaense attack 0.95 + Uniao Mogi defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Uniao Mogi scores more
39%
level
26%
Mauaense scores more
34%

Uniao Mogi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Uniao Mogi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
74'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uniao Mogi vs Mauaense

Uniao Mogi and Mauaense drew 1-1 in Paulista Série B on April 19, 2025.

Goals: ? (34', 74').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Francisco Ribeiro Nogueira in Mogi das Cruzes, São Paulo.