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Mauaense vs Uniao Mogi — Paulista Série B 2026

Mauaense
Mauaense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Uniao Mogi
Uniao Mogi
Vitinho 90' (pen)
6/13/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Mauaense50%
×Draw26%
Uniao Mogi24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mauaense
1.53
Uniao Mogi
0.96

Mauaense creates 59% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 16 away

creates per match

Mauaense
1.50
Uniao Mogi
1.06

allows per match

Mauaense
0.85
Uniao Mogi
1.56

finishing

Mauaense+0.00on par
Uniao Mogi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 55Over: 4555%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mauaense ↓

Uniao Mogi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mauaense or draw
76%
Mauaense or Uniao Mogi
74%
Draw or Uniao Mogi
50%

Winning margin

Mauaense wins by 2+
26%
Uniao Mogi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mauaense 1+ goals
78%
Mauaense 2+ goals
45%
Mauaense 3+ goals
20%
Uniao Mogi 1+ goals
62%
Uniao Mogi 2+ goals
25%
Uniao Mogi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mauaense (draw refunded)
68%
Uniao Mogi (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mauaense at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.85 · 20 matches

Uniao Mogi away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mauaense attack 1.50 + Uniao Mogi defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.53

Uniao Mogi attack 1.06 + Mauaense defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mauaense scores more
50%
level
26%
Uniao Mogi scores more
24%

Mauaense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mauaense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+5'
Vinicius Dorneles
90'
VitinhoPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Mauaense 0–1 Uniao Mogi

Uniao Mogi beat Mauaense 1-0 in Paulista Série B on June 13, 2026.

Goals: Vitinho (90' pen).