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Uniao Mogi vs Manthiqueira — Paulista Série B 2026

Uniao Mogi
Uniao Mogi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Manthiqueira
Manthiqueira
Joao Victor 10'
Nathan 75' (pen), 26'
5/31/2025Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal Francisco Ribeiro Nogueira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Uniao Mogi50%
×Draw22%
Manthiqueira29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uniao Mogi
1.98
Manthiqueira
1.46

Uniao Mogi creates 36% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

creates per match

Uniao Mogi
1.31
Manthiqueira
1.35

allows per match

Uniao Mogi
1.56
Manthiqueira
2.65

finishing

Uniao Mogi+0.00on par
Manthiqueira+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 67Under: 3367%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 66No: 3466%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uniao Mogi ↓

Manthiqueira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Uniao Mogi or draw
71%
Uniao Mogi or Manthiqueira
78%
Draw or Manthiqueira
50%

Winning margin

Uniao Mogi wins by 2+
28%
Manthiqueira wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Uniao Mogi 1+ goals
86%
Uniao Mogi 2+ goals
59%
Uniao Mogi 3+ goals
31%
Manthiqueira 1+ goals
77%
Manthiqueira 2+ goals
43%
Manthiqueira 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Uniao Mogi (draw refunded)
63%
Manthiqueira (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uniao Mogi at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Manthiqueira away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uniao Mogi attack 1.31 + Manthiqueira defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.98

Manthiqueira attack 1.35 + Uniao Mogi defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Uniao Mogi scores more
50%
level
22%
Manthiqueira scores more
29%

Uniao Mogi at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Uniao Mogi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
Joao Victor
26'
Nathan
75'
NathanPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uniao Mogi vs Manthiqueira

Manthiqueira beat Uniao Mogi 2-1 in Paulista Série B on May 31, 2025.

Goals: Joao Victor (10'), Nathan (26', 75' pen).

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Francisco Ribeiro Nogueira in Mogi das Cruzes, São Paulo.