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Manthiqueira vs Uniao Mogi — Paulista Série B 2026

Manthiqueira
Manthiqueira
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Uniao Mogi
Uniao Mogi
4/26/2025Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal Professor Dario Rodrigues Leite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Manthiqueira40%
×Draw26%
Uniao Mogi35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manthiqueira
1.42
Uniao Mogi
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

creates per match

Manthiqueira
1.28
Uniao Mogi
1.06

allows per match

Manthiqueira
1.56
Uniao Mogi
1.56

finishing

Manthiqueira+0.00on par
Uniao Mogi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manthiqueira ↓

Uniao Mogi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Manthiqueira or draw
65%
Manthiqueira or Uniao Mogi
74%
Draw or Uniao Mogi
60%

Winning margin

Manthiqueira wins by 2+
19%
Uniao Mogi wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Manthiqueira 1+ goals
76%
Manthiqueira 2+ goals
41%
Manthiqueira 3+ goals
17%
Uniao Mogi 1+ goals
73%
Uniao Mogi 2+ goals
38%
Uniao Mogi 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Manthiqueira (draw refunded)
53%
Uniao Mogi (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manthiqueira at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

Uniao Mogi away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manthiqueira attack 1.28 + Uniao Mogi defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.42

Uniao Mogi attack 1.06 + Manthiqueira defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Manthiqueira scores more
40%
level
26%
Uniao Mogi scores more
35%

Manthiqueira at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Manthiqueira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Manthiqueira 1–0 Uniao Mogi

Manthiqueira beat Uniao Mogi 1-0 in Paulista Série B on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Professor Dario Rodrigues Leite in Guaratinguetá, São Paulo.