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Uniao Mogi vs Itaquá Athletico Clube — Paulista Série B 2026

Uniao Mogi
Uniao Mogi
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Itaquá Athletico Clube
Itaquá Athletico Clubeadvanced
Unknown 73'
Unknown 74', 35', 22', 7'
7/11/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Uniao Mogi22%
×Draw23%
Itaquá Athletico Clube55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uniao Mogi
1.08
Itaquá Athletico Clube
1.85

Itaquá Athletico Clube creates 71% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

creates per match

Uniao Mogi
1.31
Itaquá Athletico Clube
2.14

allows per match

Uniao Mogi
1.56
Itaquá Athletico Clube
0.86

finishing

Uniao Mogi+0.00on par
Itaquá Athletico Clube+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uniao Mogi ↓

Itaquá Athletico Clube →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Uniao Mogi or draw
45%
Uniao Mogi or Itaquá Athletico Clube
77%
Draw or Itaquá Athletico Clube
78%

Winning margin

Uniao Mogi wins by 2+
8%
Itaquá Athletico Clube wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Uniao Mogi 1+ goals
66%
Uniao Mogi 2+ goals
29%
Uniao Mogi 3+ goals
10%
Itaquá Athletico Clube 1+ goals
84%
Itaquá Athletico Clube 2+ goals
55%
Itaquá Athletico Clube 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Uniao Mogi (draw refunded)
28%
Itaquá Athletico Clube (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uniao Mogi at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Itaquá Athletico Clube away — creates 2.14, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uniao Mogi attack 1.31 + Itaquá Athletico Clube defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.08

Itaquá Athletico Clube attack 2.14 + Uniao Mogi defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Uniao Mogi scores more
22%
level
23%
Itaquá Athletico Clube scores more
55%

Itaquá Athletico Clube at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Itaquá Athletico Clube will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
22'
35'
47'
Missed penalty
64'
73'
74'
90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Uniao Mogi 1–4 Itaquá Athletico Clube

Itaquá Athletico Clube beat Uniao Mogi 4-1 in Paulista Série B on July 11, 2026.

Goals: ? (7', 22', 35', 73', 74').