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Itaquá Athletico Clube vs Uniao Mogi — Paulista Série B 2026

Itaquá Athletico Clube
Itaquá Athletico Clubeadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Uniao Mogi
Uniao Mogi
Unknown 50'
7/18/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Itaquá Athletico Clube68%
×Draw20%
Uniao Mogi12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Itaquá Athletico Clube
2.00
Uniao Mogi
0.68

Itaquá Athletico Clube creates 194% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 16 away

creates per match

Itaquá Athletico Clube
2.43
Uniao Mogi
1.06

allows per match

Itaquá Athletico Clube
0.29
Uniao Mogi
1.56

finishing

Itaquá Athletico Clube+0.00on par
Uniao Mogi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 50Over: 5050%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No: 57Yes: 4357%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itaquá Athletico Clube ↓

Uniao Mogi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Itaquá Athletico Clube or draw
88%
Itaquá Athletico Clube or Uniao Mogi
80%
Draw or Uniao Mogi
32%

Winning margin

Itaquá Athletico Clube wins by 2+
43%
Uniao Mogi wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Itaquá Athletico Clube 1+ goals
86%
Itaquá Athletico Clube 2+ goals
59%
Itaquá Athletico Clube 3+ goals
32%
Uniao Mogi 1+ goals
49%
Uniao Mogi 2+ goals
15%
Uniao Mogi 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Itaquá Athletico Clube (draw refunded)
85%
Uniao Mogi (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itaquá Athletico Clube at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Uniao Mogi away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itaquá Athletico Clube attack 2.43 + Uniao Mogi defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.00

Uniao Mogi attack 1.06 + Itaquá Athletico Clube defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Itaquá Athletico Clube scores more
68%
level
20%
Uniao Mogi scores more
12%

Itaquá Athletico Clube at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Itaquá Athletico Clube will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Itaquá Athletico Clube 1–0 Uniao Mogi

Itaquá Athletico Clube beat Uniao Mogi 1-0 in Paulista Série B on July 18, 2026.

Goals: ? (50').