Uniao Mogi 1–1 ECUS: Result & Stats

Uniao Mogi

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

ECUS

Diego Baiano 42'

Mateus Goiano 20'

5/3/2025

Paulista Série B · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Francisco Ribeiro Nogueira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Uniao Mogi31%

×Draw29%

ECUS40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uniao MogiExpected goals in this matchECUS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.19

Uniao Mogi

1.01

ECUS

1.19

ECUS creates 18% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

1.31

creates per match

0.82

1.56

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Uniao Mogi

1.31

ECUS

0.82

allows per match

Uniao Mogi

1.56

ECUS

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uniao Mogi+0.00on par

ECUS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uniao Mogi ↓

ECUS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Uniao Mogi or draw

60%

Uniao Mogi or ECUS

71%

Draw or ECUS

69%

Winning margin

Uniao Mogi wins by 2+

12%

ECUS wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Uniao Mogi 1+ goals

64%

Uniao Mogi 2+ goals

27%

Uniao Mogi 3+ goals

8%

ECUS 1+ goals

70%

ECUS 2+ goals

33%

ECUS 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Uniao Mogi (draw refunded)

44%

ECUS (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uniao Mogi at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

ECUS away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uniao Mogi attack 1.31 + ECUS defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.01

ECUS attack 0.82 + Uniao Mogi defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Uniao Mogi scores more

31%

level

29%

ECUS scores more

40%

ECUS at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "ECUS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

Mateus Goiano

42'

Diego Baiano

74'

Willian Daltro

90+5'

d. S. Lucas Porto

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff