ECUS 1–0 Uniao Mogi: Result & Stats

ECUS

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Uniao Mogi

A. Marques 57'

6/7/2025

Paulista Série B · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Municipal Francisco Marques Figueira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

ECUS50%

×Draw26%

Uniao Mogi24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ECUSExpected goals in this matchUniao Mogi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.94

ECUS

1.50

Uniao Mogi

0.94

ECUS creates 60% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

1.44

creates per match

1.06

0.81

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

ECUS

1.44

Uniao Mogi

1.06

allows per match

ECUS

0.81

Uniao Mogi

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ECUS+0.00on par

Uniao Mogi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ECUS ↓

Uniao Mogi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

ECUS or draw

76%

ECUS or Uniao Mogi

74%

Draw or Uniao Mogi

50%

Winning margin

ECUS wins by 2+

25%

Uniao Mogi wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

ECUS 1+ goals

78%

ECUS 2+ goals

44%

ECUS 3+ goals

19%

Uniao Mogi 1+ goals

61%

Uniao Mogi 2+ goals

24%

Uniao Mogi 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

ECUS (draw refunded)

68%

Uniao Mogi (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ECUS at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Uniao Mogi away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ECUS attack 1.44 + Uniao Mogi defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

Uniao Mogi attack 1.06 + ECUS defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

ECUS scores more

50%

level

26%

Uniao Mogi scores more

24%

ECUS at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "ECUS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

A. Marques

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff