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Uniao Mogi vs Atletico Mogi — Paulista Série B 2026

Uniao Mogi
Uniao Mogi
FT
1 – 1
Atletico Mogi
Atletico Mogi
4/27/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal Francisco Ribeiro Nogueira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Uniao Mogi53%
×Draw26%
Atletico Mogi21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uniao Mogi
1.56
Atletico Mogi
0.88

Uniao Mogi creates 77% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 5 away

creates per match

Uniao Mogi
1.31
Atletico Mogi
0.20

allows per match

Uniao Mogi
1.56
Atletico Mogi
1.80

finishing

Uniao Mogi+0.00on par
Atletico Mogi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 56Over: 4456%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uniao Mogi ↓

Atletico Mogi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Uniao Mogi or draw
79%
Uniao Mogi or Atletico Mogi
74%
Draw or Atletico Mogi
47%

Winning margin

Uniao Mogi wins by 2+
28%
Atletico Mogi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Uniao Mogi 1+ goals
79%
Uniao Mogi 2+ goals
46%
Uniao Mogi 3+ goals
21%
Atletico Mogi 1+ goals
59%
Atletico Mogi 2+ goals
22%
Atletico Mogi 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Uniao Mogi (draw refunded)
71%
Atletico Mogi (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uniao Mogi at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Atletico Mogi away — creates 0.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uniao Mogi attack 1.31 + Atletico Mogi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Atletico Mogi attack 0.20 + Uniao Mogi defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Uniao Mogi scores more
53%
level
26%
Atletico Mogi scores more
21%

Uniao Mogi at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Uniao Mogi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Uniao Mogi 1–1 Atletico Mogi

Uniao Mogi and Atletico Mogi drew 1-1 in Paulista Série B on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Francisco Ribeiro Nogueira in Mogi das Cruzes, São Paulo.