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Atletico Mogi vs Uniao Mogi — Paulista Série B 2026

Atletico Mogi
Atletico Mogi
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Uniao Mogi
Uniao Mogi
L. Guilherme 66'
D. S. Nascimento Silva 31' (pen)
Thomas 46'
6/1/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal Francisco Ribeiro Nogueira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Atletico Mogi39%
×Draw25%
Uniao Mogi37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Mogi
1.48
Uniao Mogi
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

creates per match

Atletico Mogi
1.40
Uniao Mogi
1.06

allows per match

Atletico Mogi
1.80
Uniao Mogi
1.56

finishing

Atletico Mogi+0.00on par
Uniao Mogi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Mogi ↓

Uniao Mogi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Atletico Mogi or draw
63%
Atletico Mogi or Uniao Mogi
75%
Draw or Uniao Mogi
61%

Winning margin

Atletico Mogi wins by 2+
19%
Uniao Mogi wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Atletico Mogi 1+ goals
77%
Atletico Mogi 2+ goals
43%
Atletico Mogi 3+ goals
19%
Uniao Mogi 1+ goals
76%
Uniao Mogi 2+ goals
42%
Uniao Mogi 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Atletico Mogi (draw refunded)
51%
Uniao Mogi (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Mogi at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Uniao Mogi away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Mogi attack 1.40 + Uniao Mogi defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

Uniao Mogi attack 1.06 + Atletico Mogi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atletico Mogi scores more
39%
level
25%
Uniao Mogi scores more
37%

Atletico Mogi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atletico Mogi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
D. S. Nascimento SilvaPenalty
35'
Daniel
35'
Daniel
45+1'
Lucao
46'
Thomas
66'
L. Guilherme
74'
Patrick
74'
Guilherme Santos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Mogi vs Uniao Mogi

Atletico Mogi beat Uniao Mogi 2-1 in Paulista Série B on June 1, 2024.

Goals: D. S. Nascimento Silva (31' pen), Thomas (46'), L. Guilherme (66').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Francisco Ribeiro Nogueira in Mogi das Cruzes, São Paulo.