União Mogi U20 0–0 São José EC U20: Result & Stats

União Mogi U20

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

São José EC U20

6/7/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Municipal Francisco Ribeiro Nogueira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

União Mogi U2017%

×Draw19%

São José EC U2064%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

União Mogi U20Expected goals in this matchSão José EC U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

2.27

União Mogi U20

1.07

São José EC U20

2.27

São José EC U20 creates 112% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

0.00

creates per match

1.15

3.40

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

União Mogi U20

0.00

São José EC U20

1.15

allows per match

União Mogi U20

3.40

São José EC U20

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

União Mogi U20+0.00on par

São José EC U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União Mogi U20 ↓

São José EC U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

União Mogi U20 or draw

36%

União Mogi U20 or São José EC U20

81%

Draw or São José EC U20

83%

Winning margin

União Mogi U20 wins by 2+

6%

São José EC U20 wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

União Mogi U20 1+ goals

66%

União Mogi U20 2+ goals

29%

União Mogi U20 3+ goals

9%

São José EC U20 1+ goals

90%

São José EC U20 2+ goals

66%

São José EC U20 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

União Mogi U20 (draw refunded)

21%

São José EC U20 (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União Mogi U20 at home — creates 0.00, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

São José EC U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União Mogi U20 attack 0.00 + São José EC U20 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

São José EC U20 attack 1.15 + União Mogi U20 defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

União Mogi U20 scores more

17%

level

19%

São José EC U20 scores more

64%

São José EC U20 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "São José EC U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+7'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff