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São José EC U20 vs União Mogi U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

São José EC U20
São José EC U20
FT
6 – 2
HT: 5 – 0
União Mogi U20
União Mogi U20
S. Kleber 90+2'
Petterson 45+2'
Isaac 27', 11'
J. Saraiva 24'
D. Kauan 2'
H. Kaio 71'
D. Paula 47'
5/3/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4Centro Esportivo José Ely de Miranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

São José EC U2066%
×Draw17%
União Mogi U2017%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São José EC U20
2.73
União Mogi U20
1.36

São José EC U20 creates 101% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

São José EC U20
1.25
União Mogi U20
0.80

allows per match

São José EC U20
1.92
União Mogi U20
4.20

finishing

São José EC U20+0.00on par
União Mogi U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 77Under: 2377%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 69No: 3169%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São José EC U20 ↓

União Mogi U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

São José EC U20 or draw
83%
São José EC U20 or União Mogi U20
83%
Draw or União Mogi U20
34%

Winning margin

São José EC U20 wins by 2+
45%
União Mogi U20 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

São José EC U20 1+ goals
93%
São José EC U20 2+ goals
75%
São José EC U20 3+ goals
50%
União Mogi U20 1+ goals
74%
União Mogi U20 2+ goals
39%
União Mogi U20 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

São José EC U20 (draw refunded)
79%
União Mogi U20 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São José EC U20 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

União Mogi U20 away — creates 0.80, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São José EC U20 attack 1.25 + União Mogi U20 defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 2.73

União Mogi U20 attack 0.80 + São José EC U20 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

São José EC U20 scores more
66%
level
17%
União Mogi U20 scores more
17%

São José EC U20 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "São José EC U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
D. Kauan
11'
Isaac
24'
J. Saraiva
27'
Isaac
45+2'
Petterson
47'
D. Paula
71'
H. Kaio
79'
90+2'
S. Kleber

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: São José EC U20 6–2 União Mogi U20

São José EC U20 beat União Mogi U20 6-2 in Paulista - U20 on May 3, 2024.

Goals: D. Kauan (2'), Isaac (11', 27'), J. Saraiva (24'), Petterson (45+2'), D. Paula (47'), H. Kaio (71'), S. Kleber (90+2').

The match was played at Centro Esportivo José Ely de Miranda in Pindamonhangaba, São Paulo.