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União Mogi U20 vs Pinda U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

União Mogi U20
União Mogi U20
FT
0 – 9
HT: 0 – 3
Pinda U20
Pinda U20
Caio 90+1', 85', 69'
G. Nunes 82', 5'
F. Luz 76', 70'
Nicolas Sampaio 36', 25'
5/24/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal Francisco Ribeiro Nogueira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

União Mogi U204%
×Draw9%
Pinda U2087%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

União Mogi U20
0.60
Pinda U20
3.30

Pinda U20 creates 450% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

União Mogi U20
0.00
Pinda U20
3.20

allows per match

União Mogi U20
3.40
Pinda U20
1.20

finishing

União Mogi U20+0.00on par
Pinda U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 73Under: 2773%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 57Yes: 4357%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União Mogi U20 ↓

Pinda U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–212%
0–313%
0–411%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (13%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

União Mogi U20 or draw
13%
União Mogi U20 or Pinda U20
91%
Draw or Pinda U20
96%

Winning margin

União Mogi U20 wins by 2+
1%
Pinda U20 wins by 2+
70%

Team goals

União Mogi U20 1+ goals
45%
União Mogi U20 2+ goals
12%
União Mogi U20 3+ goals
2%
Pinda U20 1+ goals
96%
Pinda U20 2+ goals
83%
Pinda U20 3+ goals
62%

Draw no bet

União Mogi U20 (draw refunded)
4%
Pinda U20 (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União Mogi U20 at home — creates 0.00, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

Pinda U20 away — creates 3.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União Mogi U20 attack 0.00 + Pinda U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.60

Pinda U20 attack 3.20 + União Mogi U20 defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 3.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

União Mogi U20 scores more
4%
level
9%
Pinda U20 scores more
87%

Pinda U20 at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Pinda U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
G. Nunes
25'
Nicolas Sampaio
36'
Nicolas Sampaio
69'
Caio
70'
F. Luz
76'
F. Luz
82'
G. Nunes
85'
Caio
90+1'
Caio

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: União Mogi U20 vs Pinda U20

Pinda U20 beat União Mogi U20 9-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 24, 2024.

Goals: G. Nunes (5', 82'), Nicolas Sampaio (25', 36'), Caio (69', 85', 90+1'), F. Luz (70', 76').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Francisco Ribeiro Nogueira in Mogi das Cruzes, São Paulo.