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Pinda U20 vs União Mogi U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Pinda U20
Pinda U20
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
União Mogi U20
União Mogi U20
F. Luz 85'
G. Costa 68'
Nicolas Sampaio 62'
P. Lima 45'
O. Getelina 7'
4/19/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Dr. Antônio Pinheiro Júnior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Pinda U2075%
×Draw14%
União Mogi U2010%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pinda U20
2.90
União Mogi U20
1.00

Pinda U20 creates 190% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Pinda U20
1.60
União Mogi U20
0.80

allows per match

Pinda U20
1.20
União Mogi U20
4.20

finishing

Pinda U20+0.00on par
União Mogi U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 74Under: 2674%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pinda U20 ↓

União Mogi U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Pinda U20 or draw
90%
Pinda U20 or União Mogi U20
86%
Draw or União Mogi U20
25%

Winning margin

Pinda U20 wins by 2+
55%
União Mogi U20 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Pinda U20 1+ goals
94%
Pinda U20 2+ goals
78%
Pinda U20 3+ goals
54%
União Mogi U20 1+ goals
63%
União Mogi U20 2+ goals
26%
União Mogi U20 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Pinda U20 (draw refunded)
88%
União Mogi U20 (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pinda U20 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

União Mogi U20 away — creates 0.80, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pinda U20 attack 1.60 + União Mogi U20 defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 2.90

União Mogi U20 attack 0.80 + Pinda U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Pinda U20 scores more
75%
level
14%
União Mogi U20 scores more
10%

Pinda U20 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Pinda U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
O. Getelina
45'
P. Lima
62'
Nicolas Sampaio
68'
G. Costa
85'
F. Luz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pinda U20 vs União Mogi U20

Pinda U20 beat União Mogi U20 5-0 in Paulista - U20 on April 19, 2024.

Goals: O. Getelina (7'), P. Lima (45'), Nicolas Sampaio (62'), G. Costa (68'), F. Luz (85').

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Antônio Pinheiro Júnior in Pindamonhangaba, São Paulo.