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Uniao Luziense vs BOA — Mineiro - 2 2026

Uniao Luziense
Uniao Luziense
FT
1 – 0
BOA
BOA
5/11/2022Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 4Estádio Municipal Victor Andrade de Brito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Uniao Luziense38%
×Draw32%
BOA30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uniao Luziense
1.03
BOA
0.88

Uniao Luziense creates 17% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 32 away

creates per match

Uniao Luziense
0.88
BOA
0.75

allows per match

Uniao Luziense
1.00
BOA
1.19

finishing

Uniao Luziense+0.00on par
BOA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 70Over: 3070%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 62Yes: 3862%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uniao Luziense ↓

BOA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Uniao Luziense or draw
70%
Uniao Luziense or BOA
68%
Draw or BOA
62%

Winning margin

Uniao Luziense wins by 2+
15%
BOA wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Uniao Luziense 1+ goals
64%
Uniao Luziense 2+ goals
28%
Uniao Luziense 3+ goals
9%
BOA 1+ goals
59%
BOA 2+ goals
22%
BOA 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Uniao Luziense (draw refunded)
56%
BOA (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uniao Luziense at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

BOA away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.19 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uniao Luziense attack 0.88 + BOA defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.03

BOA attack 0.75 + Uniao Luziense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Uniao Luziense scores more
38%
level
32%
BOA scores more
30%

Uniao Luziense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Uniao Luziense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uniao Luziense vs BOA

Uniao Luziense beat BOA 1-0 in Mineiro - 2 on May 11, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Victor Andrade de Brito in Santa Luzia, Minas Gerais.