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BOA vs Uniao Luziense — Mineiro - 2 2026

BOA
BOA
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Uniao Luziense
Uniao Luziense
Rafael 90+5'
N. Silva 76'
Vagner 32'
Leonardo 62'
Caique 53'
Izaias 44'
5/21/2023Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 5Estádio Municipal Prefeito Dilzon Luiz de Melo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

BOA45%
×Draw28%
Uniao Luziense27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BOA
1.33
Uniao Luziense
0.96

BOA creates 39% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 16 away

creates per match

BOA
1.03
Uniao Luziense
0.69

allows per match

BOA
1.23
Uniao Luziense
1.63

finishing

BOA+0.00on par
Uniao Luziense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 60Over: 4060%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 55Yes: 4555%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BOA ↓

Uniao Luziense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

BOA or draw
73%
BOA or Uniao Luziense
72%
Draw or Uniao Luziense
55%

Winning margin

BOA wins by 2+
21%
Uniao Luziense wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

BOA 1+ goals
74%
BOA 2+ goals
38%
BOA 3+ goals
15%
Uniao Luziense 1+ goals
62%
Uniao Luziense 2+ goals
25%
Uniao Luziense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

BOA (draw refunded)
63%
Uniao Luziense (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BOA at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

Uniao Luziense away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BOA attack 1.03 + Uniao Luziense defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.33

Uniao Luziense attack 0.69 + BOA defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

BOA scores more
45%
level
28%
Uniao Luziense scores more
27%

BOA at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "BOA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
Vagner
44'
Izaias
53'
Caique
62'
Leonardo
65'
Thainler
65'
Thainler
76'
N. Silva
90+5'
Rafael

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 2: BOA 3–3 Uniao Luziense

BOA and Uniao Luziense drew 3-3 in Mineiro - 2 on May 21, 2023.

Goals: Vagner (32'), Izaias (44'), Caique (53'), Leonardo (62'), N. Silva (76'), Rafael (90+5').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Prefeito Dilzon Luiz de Melo in Varginha, Minas Gerais.