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União de Malanje vs Sagrada Esperança — Girabola 2019

União de Malanje
União de Malanje
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
11/11/2023GirabolaGirabola · Round 3Estádio 1º de Maio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

União de Malanje33%
×Draw30%
Sagrada Esperança37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

União de Malanje
0.98
Sagrada Esperança
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 104 away

creates per match

União de Malanje
1.00
Sagrada Esperança
0.92

allows per match

União de Malanje
1.21
Sagrada Esperança
0.97

finishing

União de Malanje+0.00on par
Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União de Malanje ↓

Sagrada Esperança →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

União de Malanje or draw
63%
União de Malanje or Sagrada Esperança
70%
Draw or Sagrada Esperança
67%

Winning margin

União de Malanje wins by 2+
12%
Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

União de Malanje 1+ goals
62%
União de Malanje 2+ goals
26%
União de Malanje 3+ goals
8%
Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
65%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
29%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

União de Malanje (draw refunded)
47%
Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União de Malanje at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Sagrada Esperança away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.97 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União de Malanje attack 1.00 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Sagrada Esperança attack 0.92 + União de Malanje defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

União de Malanje scores more
33%
level
30%
Sagrada Esperança scores more
37%

Sagrada Esperança at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sagrada Esperança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: União de Malanje vs Sagrada Esperança

Sagrada Esperança beat União de Malanje 1-0 in Girabola on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio 1º de Maio in Malanje.