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Sagrada Esperança vs União de Malanje — Girabola 2019

Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
União de Malanje
União de Malanje
4/6/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 18Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sagrada Esperança70%
×Draw20%
União de Malanje9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sagrada Esperança
1.88
União de Malanje
0.52

Sagrada Esperança creates 262% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 14 away

creates per match

Sagrada Esperança
1.69
União de Malanje
0.50

allows per match

Sagrada Esperança
0.53
União de Malanje
2.07

finishing

Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par
União de Malanje+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagrada Esperança ↓

União de Malanje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sagrada Esperança or draw
91%
Sagrada Esperança or União de Malanje
80%
Draw or União de Malanje
30%

Winning margin

Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
43%
União de Malanje wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
85%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
56%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
29%
União de Malanje 1+ goals
41%
União de Malanje 2+ goals
10%
União de Malanje 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
88%
União de Malanje (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagrada Esperança at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.53 · 103 matches

União de Malanje away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagrada Esperança attack 1.69 + União de Malanje defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.88

União de Malanje attack 0.50 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Sagrada Esperança scores more
70%
level
20%
União de Malanje scores more
9%

Sagrada Esperança at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Sagrada Esperança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Sagrada Esperança 1–0 União de Malanje

Sagrada Esperança beat União de Malanje 1-0 in Girabola on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros in Luanda.