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União de Malanje vs Desportivo Huíla — Girabola 2019

União de Malanje
União de Malanje
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Desportivo Huíla
Desportivo Huíla
2/21/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 11Estádio 1º de Maio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

União de Malanje38%
×Draw30%
Desportivo Huíla32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

União de Malanje
1.10
Desportivo Huíla
0.98

União de Malanje creates 12% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 100 away

creates per match

União de Malanje
1.00
Desportivo Huíla
0.76

allows per match

União de Malanje
1.21
Desportivo Huíla
1.21

finishing

União de Malanje+0.00on par
Desportivo Huíla+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União de Malanje ↓

Desportivo Huíla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

União de Malanje or draw
68%
União de Malanje or Desportivo Huíla
70%
Draw or Desportivo Huíla
62%

Winning margin

União de Malanje wins by 2+
15%
Desportivo Huíla wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

União de Malanje 1+ goals
67%
União de Malanje 2+ goals
30%
União de Malanje 3+ goals
10%
Desportivo Huíla 1+ goals
62%
Desportivo Huíla 2+ goals
26%
Desportivo Huíla 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

União de Malanje (draw refunded)
54%
Desportivo Huíla (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União de Malanje at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Desportivo Huíla away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União de Malanje attack 1.00 + Desportivo Huíla defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Desportivo Huíla attack 0.76 + União de Malanje defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

União de Malanje scores more
38%
level
30%
Desportivo Huíla scores more
32%

União de Malanje at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "União de Malanje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: União de Malanje 0–0 Desportivo Huíla

União de Malanje and Desportivo Huíla drew 0-0 in Girabola on February 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio 1º de Maio in Malanje.