Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Desportivo Huíla vs União de Malanje — Girabola 2019

Desportivo Huíla
Desportivo Huíla
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
União de Malanje
União de Malanje
5/12/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 26Estádio Nacional da Tundavala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Desportivo Huíla65%
×Draw23%
União de Malanje12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Desportivo Huíla
1.69
União de Malanje
0.57

Desportivo Huíla creates 196% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 14 away

creates per match

Desportivo Huíla
1.32
União de Malanje
0.50

allows per match

Desportivo Huíla
0.64
União de Malanje
2.07

finishing

Desportivo Huíla+0.00on par
União de Malanje+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Desportivo Huíla ↓

União de Malanje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Desportivo Huíla or draw
88%
Desportivo Huíla or União de Malanje
77%
Draw or União de Malanje
35%

Winning margin

Desportivo Huíla wins by 2+
37%
União de Malanje wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Desportivo Huíla 1+ goals
82%
Desportivo Huíla 2+ goals
50%
Desportivo Huíla 3+ goals
24%
União de Malanje 1+ goals
43%
União de Malanje 2+ goals
11%
União de Malanje 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Desportivo Huíla (draw refunded)
84%
União de Malanje (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Desportivo Huíla at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.64 · 101 matches

União de Malanje away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Desportivo Huíla attack 1.32 + União de Malanje defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.69

União de Malanje attack 0.50 + Desportivo Huíla defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Desportivo Huíla scores more
65%
level
23%
União de Malanje scores more
12%

Desportivo Huíla at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Desportivo Huíla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Desportivo Huíla vs União de Malanje

Desportivo Huíla beat União de Malanje 3-0 in Girabola on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Nacional da Tundavala in Lubango.