União de Leiria 1–3 Torreense: Result & Stats

União de Leiria

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Torreense

E. Kouassi 28'

Mathys Jean-Marie 81'

Stopira 67'

N. Ahouonon 12'

4/6/2025

Segunda Liga · Round 28Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

União de Leiria39%

×Draw27%

Torreense34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

União de LeiriaExpected goals in this matchTorreense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.21

União de Leiria

1.31

Torreense

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

1.47

creates per match

1.15

1.27

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

União de Leiria

1.47

Torreense

1.15

allows per match

União de Leiria

1.27

Torreense

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

União de Leiria+0.00on par

Torreense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União de Leiria ↓

Torreense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

União de Leiria or draw

66%

União de Leiria or Torreense

73%

Draw or Torreense

61%

Winning margin

União de Leiria wins by 2+

18%

Torreense wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

União de Leiria 1+ goals

73%

União de Leiria 2+ goals

38%

União de Leiria 3+ goals

14%

Torreense 1+ goals

70%

Torreense 2+ goals

34%

Torreense 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

União de Leiria (draw refunded)

53%

Torreense (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União de Leiria at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

Torreense away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União de Leiria attack 1.47 + Torreense defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.31

Torreense attack 1.15 + União de Leiria defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

União de Leiria scores more

39%

level

27%

Torreense scores more

34%

União de Leiria at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

N. Ahouonon

25'

Crystopher← Ryan Guilherme

28'

39'

40'

46'

48'

58'

J. van der Gaag← O. Mbina

58'

Jair da Silva← Juan Muñoz

60'

Javi Vázquez

67'

Stopira

71'

João Resende← S. Singh

77'

Jair da Silva

81'

Mathys Jean-Marie

86'

Pité← David Costa

86'

Dani Bolt← Mathys Jean-Marie

86'

A. Dacourt← Léo Azevedo

87'

Andrea Dacourt

90+4'

Habib Sylla

90+3'

Rúben Pinto← Manu Pozo

90+3'

Ethyan González← B. Agbor

Shots

Statistics

UniãoTorreense

Overview

1Total Shots3

1Fouls3

Shots

1Total Shots3

1On Target3

Discipline

1Fouls3