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Torreense vs União de Leiria — Segunda Liga 2018

Torreense
Torreense
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
União de Leiria
União de Leiria
David Costa 90+8'
Manu Pozo 45' (pen)
Jair da Silva 37'
11/10/2024Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 11Campo Manuel Marques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Torreense37%
×Draw27%
União de Leiria36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torreense
1.27
União de Leiria
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

creates per match

Torreense
1.40
União de Leiria
1.37

allows per match

Torreense
1.09
União de Leiria
1.14

finishing

Torreense+0.00on par
União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torreense ↓

União de Leiria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Torreense or draw
64%
Torreense or União de Leiria
73%
Draw or União de Leiria
63%

Winning margin

Torreense wins by 2+
16%
União de Leiria wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Torreense 1+ goals
72%
Torreense 2+ goals
36%
Torreense 3+ goals
14%
União de Leiria 1+ goals
71%
União de Leiria 2+ goals
35%
União de Leiria 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Torreense (draw refunded)
51%
União de Leiria (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torreense at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.09 · 68 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torreense attack 1.40 + União de Leiria defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.27

União de Leiria attack 1.37 + Torreense defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Torreense scores more
37%
level
27%
União de Leiria scores more
36%

Torreense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Torreense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
Brian Agbor
34'
N'Tamon Elie Ahouonon
37'
Jair da Silva
45'
Manu PozoPenalty
46'
Alisson Santos← Crystopher
59'
Luccas Paraizo← Miguel Rebelo
63'
Daniel dos Anjos← Juan Muñoz
65'
Habib Sylla
67'
Mathys Jean-Marie← Manu Pozo
67'
David Costa← B. Agbor
78'
Dani Bolt
81'
Victor Rofino
81'
André Simões← Léo Azevedo
81'
Matheus Alessandro← Jair da Silva
87'
Ryan
90+1'
Diogo Amado← Matheus Alessandro
90+8'
David Costa

Shots

2Torreense

Statistics

TorreenseUnião
Overview
2Total Shots1
2Fouls1
Shots
2Total Shots1
2On Target1
Discipline
2Fouls1

Match Recap: Torreense vs União de Leiria

Torreense beat União de Leiria 2-1 in Segunda Liga on November 10, 2024.

Goals: Jair da Silva (37'), Manu Pozo (45' pen), David Costa (90+8').

The match was played at Campo Manuel Marques in Torres Vedras.