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União de Leiria vs Tondela — Segunda Liga 2018

União de Leiria
União de Leiria
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Tondela
Tondela
10/1/2023Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 6Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

União de Leiria35%
×Draw26%
Tondela38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

União de Leiria
1.27
Tondela
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

União de Leiria
1.47
Tondela
1.39

allows per match

União de Leiria
1.27
Tondela
1.06

finishing

União de Leiria+0.00on par
Tondela+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União de Leiria ↓

Tondela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

União de Leiria or draw
62%
União de Leiria or Tondela
74%
Draw or Tondela
65%

Winning margin

União de Leiria wins by 2+
15%
Tondela wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

União de Leiria 1+ goals
72%
União de Leiria 2+ goals
36%
União de Leiria 3+ goals
14%
Tondela 1+ goals
74%
Tondela 2+ goals
38%
Tondela 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

União de Leiria (draw refunded)
48%
Tondela (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União de Leiria at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

Tondela away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União de Leiria attack 1.47 + Tondela defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.27

Tondela attack 1.39 + União de Leiria defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

União de Leiria scores more
35%
level
26%
Tondela scores more
38%

Tondela at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tondela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: União de Leiria 2–2 Tondela

União de Leiria and Tondela drew 2-2 in Segunda Liga on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa in Leiria.